Starlink or wait for Amazon Leo? What New Zealand actually knows

More than most people realise, and less than a launch.

Overseas Investment Office approval and the spectrum licence count reported by the NZ Herald; the land purchase was also covered by Bloomberg and trade press. The absence of a retail partnership is the significant item — in Australia, the nbn deal was Amazon Leo’s first commercial partnership anywhere, and it is what pins the Australian timeline down.

Amazon has named five countries for its initial beta: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Canada, targeted for late 2026 or early 2027. New Zealand is not among them. Neither is Australia — but Australia has the nbn partnership and a stated middle-of-2026 intention behind it, which New Zealand does not.

Beyond the first five, Amazon has talked about roughly 57 countries during 2027 and close to 100 by the end of 2028. New Zealand is presumably somewhere in that, and the ground station and licences suggest it is not an afterthought. But "presumably somewhere in 2027 or 2028" is not a date you can plan a rural connection around.

Country lists and timing from Amazon statements and its CEO’s shareholder letter, reported through 2026. We have not seen Amazon name New Zealand with a date anywhere.

Amazon Leo’s first-generation shells sit at 590, 610 and 630 km, and the constellation is optimised for latitudes 30–56°. Coverage fills in from the higher latitudes toward the equator as satellites are added.

New Zealand spans roughly 34°S to 47°S. The entire country is inside that band — Cape Reinga to Bluff, and the Chathams too. There is no part of New Zealand that waits for the equatorial fill-in.

Australia is not so lucky: its tropical north sits outside the band and reaches usable service later than the south. So when Leo does arrive here, it should arrive everywhere at once rather than rolling south to north. That is a genuine structural advantage, and it is the strongest argument that New Zealand will be an early rather than a late market.

Amazon said in mid-2026 it now has enough satellites in orbit to begin initial service across its initial latitudes — a real milestone, and the reason this is no longer a paper constellation. But it also missed its FCC deployment deadline, which required half the constellation by 30 July 2026, and has asked for an extension. Launch capacity, not ambition, is the constraint.

Starlink NZ customer count and market share from the Commerce Commission’s 2025 Annual Telecommunications Monitoring Report; measured speed from Measuring Broadband New Zealand Report 28. Amazon satellite counts from company statements and launch records, mid-2026.

If you need a connection now: get Starlink, or a local WISP, or fibre if it reaches you. Buy the hardware outright and nothing locks you out of switching later; on the free-rental deal, check the minimum term first.

If you are on copper and have been notified: definitely do not wait. The copper retirement runs to 2028 and Amazon Leo will not reliably be here in time to be your replacement.

If your current connection is adequate and you are only shopping for a better price: waiting is defensible. Competition is the most likely thing to move Starlink’s pricing, and the Commerce Commission has said it expects Amazon’s entry to slow Starlink’s momentum. But “defensible” is not the same as recommended, and the wait could be two years.

What would change our answer: an announced New Zealand launch date, or a retail partnership with a local provider. Either would be a real signal. The ground station and the licences are groundwork, not commitments.